For all the damage that's been done to the flyweight division through its mismanagement, there's still a reasonable path forward to making it one of the more exciting weight classes in the UFC. The talent, depth, and star power are all there. All that's left to do is put the right guys in the right matchups at the right time.
(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura, UFC 307
With the way the top of the division is matched up, this looks more and more like a certainty. Pantoja expressed that he wants one more title defense before the year ends, and the most worthy challengers are either booked (Tatsuro Taira) or cut from the UFC (Mohammad Mokaev). Asakura is one of the most highly anticipated prospects to ever come from Japan, opening the UFC to a massive new fan base that Dana White has been talking about accessing for years. UFC 307 is currently set to have Raquel Pennington headline in her first title defense, a surefire way to put up one of the worst-selling events in company history. This matchup works on every level. Give a massive prospect a fitting spotlight in a title fight, allow Pantoja another title defense in 2024, and promote the division as a whole by having flyweights headline a second pay-per-view of the year. This is one of the few scenarios where flyweights are actually the best option to boost PPV sales, and the UFC would be wise to take advantage of it.
(1) Brandon Royval vs. (5) Tatsuro Taira
After fumbling an opportunity to have Royval headline a card in his home city of Denver, the UFC booked him to main event an Apex card on October 12th. Overall, it's not a horrible consolation prize, but a fight that is essentially a title eliminator deserves a bit more of a spotlight. In order to give that spotlight and once again play on the Japanese MMA angle that Taira makes available, the promotion should focus on loading the card with East Asian talent. Rinya Nakamura and Rei Tsuruya, two excellent Japanese prospects, are currently unbooked. If both of them are on the main card beside Taira, a seemingly unimportant Fight Night could become a banner night for Japanese fans, turning Taira into a figurehead that the UFC desperately needs to make gains throughout Asia.
(2) Brandon Moreno vs. (3) Amir Albazi
Moreno has long been one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, and for good reason. His tendency to put on ferocious striking battles coupled with an unassuming personality appeal to fans everywhere, but especially throughout Mexico. Moreno was last in the octagon for a main event in Mexico City, and the same stage is appropriate for his anticipated return in early 2025. The arena will always sell out for Moreno, especially with an opponent as good as Albazi. The Iraqi has successfully played the heel in the past, and doing so in Mexico against one of the most popular Mexican MMA fighters ever would boost his status as both a fighter and a villain, something that the UFC covets. This card would likely come in February or March, allowing the Mexican talent from the Sphere card to make the turnaround in front of their home fans. A hometown-heavy card headlined by Moreno in front of a packed stadium will do big viewership numbers every time, proving again that flyweights can and should take the spotlight.
(4) Kai Kara-France vs. (7) Steve Erceg
This was an excellent piece of matchmaking by the UFC brass. Kara-France and Erceg match up stylistically and geographically, turning UFC 305 into the perfect stage for the fight. This is as close to a guarantee as you can get for an exciting striking matchup, setting both men up to gain a considerable amount of fans after the fight. Erceg already has a shockingly large following after dropping a close decision to Pantoja in May, putting him in position to become one of the most popular flyweights in the world with a good performance in Perth. There's a legitimate chance that the winner takes home bonus money along with a shot at a title eliminator in his next fight.
(6) Alex Perez: A Long Layoff
Injuries are often career-killers in a sport as fast-moving as MMA. Perez has been through the wringer with various ailments throughout his career, most recently shredding his knee against Taira in June, ensuring another layoff of about a year. The activity of the flyweight division makes finding Perez a sensible match a near-impossibility until closer to his return date. Here's hoping for a quick recovery for a guy who's been a staple of the division for the last five years.
(8) Matheus Nicolau vs. (14) Asu Almabayev
Too much, too fast has been a curse to countless young UFC prospects. Almabayev might fall victim to it in this matchup. Technically, he matches up well with Nicolau, but when it comes to promoting his name value and his value to the UFC, this isn't a great fight for him. Almabayev fights similarly to Muhammad Mokaev: stifling wrestling, excellent control, and very little time on the feet. The way that the UFC has treated Mokaev and other aforementioned flyweights suggests that entertainment is almost valued above all else. In order to capitalize on the entertaining traits Almabayev does have, a matchup with another highly-skilled grappler like Tim Elliott or Cody Durden would have been best. Instead, Almabayev drew Nicolau, the highest-ranked opponent he could have reasonably asked for. At the very least, this will be an excellent technical matchup between two guys who specialize in different areas. There are worse things to watch.
(9) Manel Kape vs. Allan Nascimento
One gets the feeling that Kape is on thin ice with the UFC. He was booked to fight Nicolau twice earlier this year and withdrew both times, once because of a weight miss, something that's never looked upon kindly. Both of his last two performances against Mokaev and Felipe Dos Santos were incredibly underwhelming, especially for the amount of trash he talked throughout the buildup to both fights. We've seen guys in Kape's position take fights outside the rankings often, and that's likely what will happen here based on how the rest of the division stands. Nascimento is long overdue for a chance to put a number next to his name, especially when guys like Matt Schnell maintain their ranking despite consistently performing poorly. Nascimento has a style conducive to barn-burning fights, both on the feet and the mat, something that should encourage matchmakers to give him a shot up the rankings. Putting this fight in Sao Paolo or Rio De Janeiro would boost both fighters' stocks tremendously, giving Kape, who flies the Portuguese flag, a chance to play the heel away from home and Nascimento an opportunity to fight on his home floor.
(10) Tim Elliott vs. (13) Bruno Silva
Nobody likes to be labeled a gatekeeper, but that's the fate that's fallen to Tim Elliott. At 37, any sort of title hopes are long gone, but his name value and ability to beat up up-and-comers hold plenty of value. Beating Elliott has been a litmus test for plenty of prospects, and Silva should be next after his terrific come-from-behind knockout of Cody Durden. Elliott is still a big enough name in the division to bring in viewers, and a victory over him usually constitutes a huge step up in competition. Ideally, Silva wins and boosts his status as a good prospect on a big card and brings some more eyes to the bottom of the flyweight rankings.
(11) Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
It's nothing short of a miracle that Schnell is still in the top 15. If not for a miracle finish against Sumudaerji, Schnell would be 0-4 in his last four, with three of those losses coming by brutal knockout. The UFC is certainly aware of this, subsequently deciding to use Schnell as a career building block for Costa, a remarkably hard hitter for the division. There's very little uncertainty on how this fight will end. Costa will likely land a cracking right hand that puts Schnell out cold and move into the rankings, adding far more skill, youth, and excitement to the upper echelon of the division. This fight is set for the main card of one of the bigger Apex cards of the year, guaranteeing Costa plenty of exposure to potential new fans.
(12) Tagir Ulanbekov: Move to Bantamweight
Skill obviously isn't the only determining factor in choosing which weight class to compete in. Ulanbekov is an excellent fighter with a 4-1 record in the UFC. He's also had seven fight cancellations throughout his time with the promotion, several of which came from weight-related issues. It's time to move up to bantamweight, where he'll still have a significant size advantage over most of his opponents.
(15) Cody Durden vs. Jafel Filho
All styles can be fun to watch if given the right matchup. Durden, a pure wrestler, has long gotten a bad rep for fighting in a boring way. However, it's not really his fault most of his opponents can't figure out how to get to their feet once he lands a takedown. Filho will almost certainly be an exception. He's already shown some of the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC through three fights, jiu-jitsu that is more than capable of creating a variety of wild scrambles over 15 minutes. Durden is only in the rankings because Mokaev's absence opened up a spot, so an unranked opponent is exactly what he needs. Book it and give the fans some Arman Tsarukyan-Islam Makhachev-level scrambles at flyweight.
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