After months of waiting, UFC 304 is finally here. Throughout the media buildup surrounding the card, one fight has unsurprisingly stood out. The welterweight championship contest between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad wasn't a matchup most were initially excited for, but the bad blood between the two has turned it into a grudge match. Edwards will enter the match as a sizable favorite, but this should be one of the most competitive fights on the card.
These two fighters are virtual opposites, similar only in the sense that neither really finishes his opponents before the scorecards. Edwards is a technician on the feet, managing distance perfectly, counter-striking, and keeping himself out of danger. Muhammad is a decent striker, but he's made a career off of stifling wrestling, ground control, and excellent cardio. Given those two profiles, it's obvious that this fight will come down to if Muhammad is able to take Edwards to the mat.
Earlier in his career, takedown defense was a major concern for Edwards. He was wrestled down thirteen times in his first five fights, including allowing six in his first meeting with Kamaru Usman. A turning point seemed to come in his main event against Rafael Dos Anjos, in which he didn't allow a single takedown over five rounds. Of course, his upset win against Usman in their second fight was marked with takedown after takedown, but Edwards proved he remedied that in his first title defense. Usman was able to take him down, but he couldn't keep him there. Edwards utilized excellent footwork along the fence, high-level hand-fighting, and explosivity on the ground to stay out of trouble. Those qualities carried over to his matchup with Colby Covington, another wrestler. Edwards has shown that he is a good anti-grappler at the very least, and that combined with the aforementioned distance management should make it difficult for Muhammad to bring him down.
Despite all of the above, there are some questions concerning this specific matchup for Edwards. Usman, Covington, and Muhammad are very different wrestlers. Usman prefers to open up with the hands, reach down and grab the high crotch, or get along the fence, tie up, and drop for a double leg. Covington looked like a shadow of his former self against Edwards, rarely showing any urgency or pace that he's known for. Muhammad will be the quickest wrestler Edwards has faced in his title reign, and his huge repertoire of takedowns will be a problem. Belal is comfortable shooting from just about anywhere, making him a more well-rounded wrestling threat than the versions of Usman and Covington that Edwards beat.
When this fight isn't on the mat or along the cage, Edwards will have a massive advantage. For all the talk going on on social media, one would think that Muhammad is a Muay Thai black belt with ten knockouts to his name. To put it bluntly, he isn't. The challenger has a solid boxing game and some sneaky kicks, but their main purpose is never to do damage, but to set up the takedown. On the other side, Edwards has an argument for being the best pure kickboxer in the promotion. Muhammad does not present a lick of danger to Edwards in the standup. In their first matchup, Muhammad failed to land a takedown before a bad eye poke saved him from being knocked out. Barring some wildly big improvements to Muhammad's striking game, the champion should be safe on the feet for all 25 minutes.
The intangibles coming into this fight will also play a large factor. Muhammad has been out of the octagon for nearly a year and a half, a stark change from his usual schedule of fighting once every six months. Ring rust will be there, and it will help mitigate Edwards' tendency to start slowly. The venue is also beneficial to Edwards, as the Manchester crowd will be behind him in full. It's proven that hometown fighters do better on the scorecards, so if it does go that route (it will), it's something to consider.
Edwards has too much going for him for the pick to go any other way. He's proven himself to have solid takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, and his striking is as close to perfect as it can get. It would take a superhuman effort for Muhammad to control him for five full rounds. The champion will maintain his distance, pick his shots, and stay out of trouble like he always does. It might put some of the already-weary home fans to sleep, but it will get the job done.
Final Pick: Leon Edwards by decision.
UFC 304 takes place on Saturday, July 27th, 2024 from the Co-op Live Arena in Manchester. The prelims kick off at 6 pm EST on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 pm EST on ESPN+PPV.
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