Whenever the UFC returns to foreign soil, it returns with a bang, and UFC 304 is no exception. Manchester is in for an excellent night (and early morning) of fights, including the flyweight matchup between Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape. The two are #6 and #8 in the rankings, respectively, one of the indications that this fight should be one of the most competitive on the card.
The odds of this fight opened up at nearly even, with Mokaev starting as a very slight underdog. Since then, the lines have shifted to favor Mokaev at a -150 clip, an indication of how highly the public regards his wrestling skills. He's landed an insane 28 takedowns over six fights, including 12 takedowns in three rounds against Charles Johnson, a very good flyweight in his own right. Once on the ground, Mokaev is absolutely smothering, utilizing his top-flight explosivity, understanding of positions, and raw strength to rag-doll opponents into submissions. There hasn't been a single opponent capable of stopping the endless wrestling grind, and it's doubtful that Kape will be the first.
Stylistically, it's easy to see this as a classic striker-vs.-wrestler matchup, but it's the way both guys strike and wrestle that matters even more. Kape is a professional counter-striker, preferring to wait on his opponent to go first before blitzing forward with a barrage of punches. In those blitzes, he's been caught and taken down before, notably in his fight against David Dvorak. At range, he relies on kicks for offensive production, a factor that might be nullified by the threat of the takedown. On the other side of the cage, Mokaev's patient style of wrestling matches up well with Kape. As evidenced in the Alex Perez fight, Mokaev is happy to let his opponents come forward, time his shot, and drag them down. Kape will likely be caught charging forward and grounded several times throughout this fight, and that level of opportunity has previously been enough for Mokaev to find a submission and finish the fight.
There is, of course, a path to victory for someone as good as Kape. The discrepancy in striking skills is absolutely massive given that Mokaev is yet to show UFC-level standup through six fights. Kape is dangerous with all eight limbs, and more importantly, he has excellent finishing ability for a flyweight. One of his deadliest weapons is flying knee, something that looms large when facing someone who shoots over and over. Movement should be on Kape's side as well, particularly his ability to circle along the fence and avoid being pinned behind the black line on the octagon canvas.
It's hard to confidently pick Kape as a winner. He essentially needs to fight a completely clean 15 minutes, managing distance perfectly, avoiding overaggressive rushes, and keeping his back off of the cage. Getting caught in a takedown and the subsequent submission attempts could spell an early night, whenever they occur. Mokaev's excellent ground control will likely win him at least a round, probably two. His wrestling is too good to pick against, especially with an opponent who's proven to play into Mokaev's strengths.
Final Pick: Muhammad Mokaev by submission, round two
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