A banner night for British mixed martial arts is fast approaching in UFC 304. The promotion's return to Manchester, its first in eight years, features eleven fighters who sport the Union Jack on the way to the octagon, including two champions. Welterweight king Leon Edwards holds the honor of headlining the event, but Tom Aspinall, the interim heavyweight champion, is perhaps the most exciting fighter from England since Michael Bisping. Aspinall will (strangely enough) defend his interim belt against Curtis Blaydes, his lone loss in the UFC that came via first-round injury.
There are several key advantages that Aspinall possesses heading into this rematch. First, and perhaps most important, is his speed. He's very likely the quickest heavyweight on the UFC roster, both in terms of movement and hand speed. Blaydes is an excellent wrestler, so staying as far away from the cage as possible should be a priority for Aspinall. His movement should allow for that and help nullify the takedown threat that is ever-present when facing Blaydes. For what it's worth, the interim champion has never been taken down in his eight fights in the UFC, in large part because of his movement.
On the feet, this won't be as big of a mismatch as most expect. For some reason, probably in part because of the demolition he suffered at the hands of Sergei Pavlovich, Blaydes isn't seen as a capable striker. That simply isn't true. While he doesn't present much variety, the challenger has a solid boxing skillset, leaning on a crisp jab and a very nice counter right cross as the base of his weaponry. As one would expect of a heavyweight, Blaydes has true knockout power in both of his hands, evidenced by his six UFC knockouts. With that being said, there are significant holes in Blaydes' standup that Aspinall will exploit. For one, he almost exclusively boxes, while Aspinall has a full array of kicks and knees at his disposal. Aspinall's aforementioned speed advantage will cause problems as well, given that Blaydes was having trouble catching up to Chris Daukaus and Pavlovich when he fought them. Blaydes won't be schooled in the striking, but this is still a mismatch. Aspinall should be able to create his openings using a variety of weapons to stay well ahead when the two are standing.
In the same way Blaydes is being unfairly counted out as a boxer, Aspinall is being counted out as a wrestler. The former's fight on UFC 299 against Jailton Almeida provides ample evidence for why Aspinall has a good chance of success should he choose to pursue wrestling exchanges. Almeida is probably the second-quickest heavyweight behind Aspinall, and despite his inability to set up takedowns (Almeida landed a single strike in the fight), he succeeded in grounding Blaydes nine times in a round. Aspinall will actually set up his shots, and he certainly has the quickness to copy Almeida and shoot a double-leg when the moment is right. Just as the Brit owns a 100% takedown defense percentage, he's also landed four out of four of his UFC takedown attempts. It's an admittedly small sample size, but when put together with Blaydes' 31% takedown defense, it becomes of consequence. This isn't a striker-vs.-grappler matchup and Aspinall will prove how well-rounded he is on Saturday night.
Picking heavyweight fights is always a bit of a crap shoot, but this one is more straightforward than most. Aspinall has every advantage; his striking is levels higher than Blaydes, he's significantly faster, and the grappling exchanges could conceivably end up with him on top a majority of the time. To top it all off, Aspinall is a defending champion fighting in front of what is sure to be a raucous home crowd, despite the early hours of the morning. Blaydes is an excellent fighter in his own right, but there's too much going against him here.
Final Pick: Tom Aspinall by submission, round 2
UFC 304 takes place on Saturday, July 27th, 2024 from the Co-op Live Arena in Manchester. The prelims kick off at 6 pm EST on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 pm EST on ESPN+PPV.
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