The UFC flyweight title picture is anyone's game, but a clear frontrunner should emerge at UFC 305. Steve Erceg and Kai Kara-France, both former contenders for gold in the division, will serve as the co-main event to Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis in Perth.
It isn't often that flyweights are given the honor of fighting in the co-main event of a massive card, but if any 125ers can be counted on for an entertaining matchup, it's these two. As in most classically exciting fights, both men prefer to keep things on the feet, but their similarities essentially end there. Erceg, a big flyweight at 5'8", almost utilizes a Muay Thai style: head on the center line, forward movement, and long strikes, all while utilizing all eight striking limbs. Despite his size, Erceg is happy to enter and stay in the pocket, relying on his excellent chin to take a punch and deliver a vicious hook or a slicing elbow onto the brow of his opponents.
Kara-France, without the advantage of a tall frame, has shaped his game in an almost opposite fashion. Movement is key, a mentality that applies to both his head and his feet. In order to land his best strikes, KKF initiates blitzing attacks forward, placing himself in the line of fire in exchange for a higher chance at chaining together his dizzying boxing combinations. When he's kept at range, Kara-France relies on his jab to set up kicks to the legs and body, the only strikes he can consistently land at a distance because of his shorter reach.
Fighters who employ similar styles to Kara-France are susceptible to a number of counterattacks: elbows, knees, front kicks, and well-timed takedowns can all help neutralize a blitz-heavy fighter. In his last bout, Erceg showed that he can successfully use all of the above techniques against any flyweight in the world. Current champion Alexandre Pantoja and Kara-France are more similar in their offensive approaches than most realize. Pantoja essentially employs the same form of offense as KKF, but instead of looking to do damage with strikes, he finishes his charges with a takedown attempt. Over their five-round meeting, Erceg repeatedly landed huge elbows all across Pantoja's face, eventually bloodying the champion badly. The most damaging sequence of that entire fight came from a beautiful Erceg combination in which he landed a strong elbow that was closely followed by a left hook on the jaw as Pantoja tried to close the distance. Erceg also showed off his grappling with a beautiful (although ill-fated) takedown in the fifth round as Pantoja entered the pocket. All of those same skills will translate well to this matchup, especially the grappling. Erceg will be able to threaten the takedown every single time KKF marches forward, something that will severely inhibit the latter's ability to throw combinations. Additionally, Kara-France has also been knocked down in three of his prior fights, indicating that he won't be able to take the same clean shots that Pantoja was able to withstand.
As one of the best flyweights in the world, Kara-France does have a path to victory in this fight. Erceg's lack of head movement combined with KKF's excellent finishing power makes for a promising combination. The Kiwi's putaway punch has been his overhand right, a strike he's excellent at landing just over his opponent's shoulders. It will land in this fight too, but it'll have to land multiple times if Kara-France is to finish the fight. Overall, this is an incredibly difficult stylistic fight for Kai to overcome. Erceg's length, pocket presence and underrated grappling game will be the deciding factors on his way to a decision victory.
Final Pick: Steve Erceg by Decision
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