The UFC's second summer trip to the Middle East for UFC Abu Dhabi has shaped up to be one of the best Fight Night cards of the year, at least on paper. Aside from a boatload of talented prospects, countless fan favorites are set to return to the octagon, including former champion Deiveson Figueiredo and Marlon "Chito" Vera. With bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley set to defend his title in just over a month, the division is set for movement, making this fight all the more important.
These two fighters are more similar than they appear to be. Vera is a notoriously slow starter, having been outstruck in the first round in four of his last five fights. In three of those contests, he failed to land double-digit strikes in the opening five minutes. Figueiredo isn't quite as slow, but he's typically happy to hang back, make his reads, and try to counter through the opening frame instead of stepping on the front foot. The major difference in activity will come in the wrestling game. Figueiredo has attempted at least one takedown in the first round throughout his last four fights. The former flyweight has a variety of ways to attack takedowns, ranging from body locks and throws to classic single- and double-leg shots. Vera, as he proved in his bouts against Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar, is susceptible to just about every takedown in the book. Chito was only dragged down three times in each fight, but he put up next to no resistance each time. Both men will start the fight slowly, but Figgy will likely land a takedown midway through the round and secure a 10-9 score right away.
Wrestling will remain a consistent problem for Vera in all three rounds; the standup should be evenly matched, perhaps even swing in his direction. Figueiredo has a style of striking that plays directly into Vera's hands. He prefers to stand upright, and when pressured, he either pulls back with his chin high and on the center line or drops in on a takedown attempt. This is likely because of his time as a flyweight, where simply pulling his chin out of the pocket against smaller opponents was enough to stay safe. That wasn't the case against Rob Font, who tagged Figgy at the end of combinations multiple times. Vera is a long opponent with a tendency to end combinations with head kicks, head kicks that will certainly reach Figueiredo's chin if he doesn't move his head or completely disengage when Vera marches forward. Defensively, Chito does get hit a lot, but Figueiredo is almost the opposite of a volume striker. The Brazilian's best asset is his power, and Vera is yet to be knocked down in the UFC. His confidence in his granite chin should encourage Vera to take some chances and go after Figgy, which will likely be a necessity after he drops the first round.
None of that is to say that Figueiredo is guaranteed to lose the striking battle. Vera has always had trouble with striking defense, but his chin is so good that it covers up some of his deficiencies. Aside from getting pieced up by lengthy strikers like Cory Sandhagen and Sean O'Malley, Vera ate over 100 significant strikes against Pedro Munhoz, an opponent who's shorter than Figueiredo with less reach. Figueiredo will have success on the feet, but its purpose will be in setting up takedowns. Vera's fight against Sandhagen provides a helpful blueprint: stand at range and pepper in shots, gradually move Vera back to the fence, and look for a clean entry. When getting hit, Chito tends to put up a high guard and shell up, somewhat like Petr Yan. The difference is that Yan can counter-wrestle despite his high guard, never accepting a takedown, while Vera often surrenders as soon as his opponent reaches his hips. Things will inevitably hit the mat, and when they do, there's little hope that Vera will be able to get back up. Figueiredo is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the entire UFC, and his ability to control opponents on the ground and advance position slowly but surely has led to three submission victories. Given that Vera is almost a lock to lose the first round, it also means that if Figueiredo can land a takedown and a couple of minutes of control time in either rounds two or three, he's highly likely to win on the scorecards.
When looking at the Las Vegas odds on this fight, it's quite surprising to see Figueiredo as small of a favorite as he is. Part of that is certainly because of the size difference, and because there's next to no chance he knocks out Vera. Neither of those things actually matter. Vera's unwillingness to engage in the first round almost guarantees his defeat on the judges' scorecards, especially in a three-round fight. He'll have to come forward aggressively and let his hands go while simultaneously maintaining perfect takedown defense. History shows that that's simply not possible for Vera, and it doesn't help that he's facing an opponent who's been knocked out only once in 16 UFC fights. Figueiredo will either ride out a clean decision on the ground or find a submission in the later rounds.
Final Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo by submission, round two
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