In a shocking turn of events, the flyweight division has become one of the most interesting in the UFC. Once thought of as a weight class devoid of exciting talent, a crop of new fighters have vaulted themselves into the rankings, providing a much-needed break in monotony in the top 15. Steve Erceg, Tatsuro Taira, and Muhammad Mokaev are all a fight away from a title shot. Joshua Van will try to add his name to that list with a win over Charles Johnson at UFC Denver.
With a 3-0 start at 22 years of age, Van has already proven himself to be one of the best prospects in the entire UFC, regardless of weight. Additionally, he possesses a far more exciting fighting style compared to many of his flyweight peers. Unlike Taira and Mokaev, Van is a pure striker, specifically a boxer. What he lacks in power he makes up for in technical brilliance. There's seldom a moment where Van's guard is misplaced or he misses an opportunity to counter. His hands are fast, his defense is excellent, and his ability to damage the body or head of his opponent has proven invaluable throughout the start of his career. This skill set will be a massive problem for Johnson on Saturday night.
Johnson has a plethora of qualities that make him an excellent flyweight. His striking defense is not one of them. When standing at range, he keeps his hands up but fails to move his head. This results in an appealing target for long jabs and crosses, something that Johnson's last opponent, Jake Hadley, took advantage of throughout their fight. As he enters the pocket, Johnson displays surprisingly good head movement, but his hands drop and leave him open to devastating counters. In his fight against Azat Maksum, Johnson entered the pocket with a combo, left his hands down, and ate a right cross that put him on his back. Handing that type of opportunity to a sniper like Van will almost certainly end with a loss.
While the above analysis might make it seem like Johnson is done for, he has ways to win this fight. Van is a notoriously slow starter, having dropped the first round in all three of his contents. Johnson gets going pretty fast and always throws with decent volume, so it's likely that his activity alone will steal him round one. His grappling will also be crucial in slowing down Van's inevitable march forward. Johnson isn't that great of a wrestler, but his clinch work is above average. Tying up Van, throwing knees and elbows, and threatening takedowns will be a necessary part of Johnson's game plan. An ugly, grimy matchup filled with dirty boxing and cage wrestling is in order. It's unlikely that Johnson will be able to land more than one or two takedowns, but any time spent inside of boxing range is time that Johnson takes Van out of his element and drags him into his.
Predicting a Van fight is always difficult because he essentially starts the fight down 10-9 no matter who he faces. That being said, Johnson's defensive lapses will be frequent and significant enough to allow Van to control the later two rounds. Johnson will take the first round, but Van will take command in the next two and seal his win with a knockdown late in the fight.
Final Prediction: Joshua Van by decision.
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