The UFC returns to the Apex on August 24th in a card headlined by top middleweights Caio Borralho and Jared Cannonier. A classic veteran-vs.-rising star matchup, the fight at the top of a seemingly unimportant card has massive implications for the middleweight division. Cannonier, a veteran of 17 UFC bouts including matchups against Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, and Sean Strickland, will hope to begin one final run at the title. Borralho is in a nearly opposite situation: young, hungry, and untested by any true middleweight talent. The old guard will either remain in favor at 185, or a fresh contender will emerge from the fray.
A quick look at the betting line shows how the public views this fight: Borralho, with his control-dominant style and measured striking, should march through Cannonier. A look at Cannonier's past fights indicates that this won't be the case. At 5'11", he has a low center of gravity, a fact that helps his takedown defense when paired with his excellent physical strength. When Cannonier has been taken down in recent fights, it has largely been because of the striking threat that his opponent presents, not because of poor defensive fundamentals. Borralho has yet to prove that he actually presents that striking threat.
Despite six fights in the UFC, Borralho's striking is basically completely untested. His biggest test, and most time on the feet, came against Abus Magomedov in November of 2023. Borralho was never in serious danger in that matchup, but he did show a couple of troubling tendencies. Utilizing a karate-style attack that is built off of darting in and out of enemy range, the Brazilian dropped his hands as he entered multiple times, leading to successful counter right overhands and check left hooks from Magomedov. The karate-style attack is also susceptible to well-timed straight punches, as we saw in the matchup between Dricus Du Plessis and Robert Whittaker. Cannonier, who will hold a reach advantage in this fight, is at his best when fighting behind a powerful jab and an accurate cross, weapons that will give Borralho's striking style issues.
Experience is always an invaluable asset in any sport, and Cannonier will lean on his in this fight. Since fighting at middleweight, the former title challenger has fought three southpaw opponents. Borralho will be his fourth. Of those three southpaws, Cannonier scored a knockout of one, Derek Brunson. Another, Kelvin Gastelum, fell in a relatively one-sided decision. The last, Marvin Vettori, took an ungodly beating at the hands of Cannonier, a beating that surely would have knocked out nearly any other man on Planet Earth. Nearly an hour of fight time against some of the world's best southpaws, and favorable results, guarantees that Cannonier will be immediately comfortable in this matchup. That, combined with his reach advantage and Borralho's questionable striking, could mean problems for the streaking prospect.
Unfortunately for Cannonier, it is nearly inevitable that this fight goes to the canvas at some point. Borralho simply has too many ways to drag his opponent down, ranging from classic freestyle wrestling takedowns to body locks to a variety of trips. Once on the ground, Borralho has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the entire UFC. He excels at slowly advancing position and maintaining control over his opponents no matter the situation. It's not a very exciting approach, but it's undeniably effective. Cannonier is still an explosive athlete at 40 years old, but exploding against Borralho puts one at massive risk of being caught in a submission. Avoiding the ground has been in the game plan of every Borralho opponent, and we are yet to see one execute it successfully. Cannonier will not be an exception.
Most fans don't expect much from Cannonier in this matchup, but he'll do a much better job than anticipated, particularly on the feet. The damage he inflicts will be enough to steal a round or two before Borralho's stifling approach on the ground takes over the fight. For gamblers, a +220 price on the underdog is worth a little sprinkle of money, as Cannonier should be closer to +200 than +220. But there's a reason Borralho is a big favorite, and why this fight is his to lose.
Final Pick: Caio Borralho by Unanimous Decision
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