After one of its last breaks of the year, the UFC is back in action in the Apex on September 7. Set to co-main the event is a featherweight matchup between Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson, two fighters currently residing just outside the top 15 rankings. There might not be a ton of name recognition, but this will be a high-level, entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.
Garcia's presence is enough to make good on the promise of a fun fight. The Jackson Wink MMA product has not seen the third round in his last six fights, ending his last four contests by knockout, part of the reason he comes into this fight as a comfortable favorite. Garcia obviously likes to keep things standing, relying on excellent offensive boxing and extraordinary pop for a featherweight to carry him to victory. A quick look at Nelson's fights shows an opposite approach to striking. Garcia is an all-out brawler who lets his hands go, consequences be damned. Nelson carefully paws at his matchups from behind a high guard, prioritizing defense and longevity to eventually wear down and crack his foes. The opposite philosophies at play will open up major advantages for both fighters at different stages of the contest.
The first round figures to favor Garcia. Nelson is a naturally slow starter because of his desire to play things safely, a reservation that Garcia cannot even begin to fathom. The first round will likely feature Nelson on the back foot, blocking and evading long combos, mixing in straight counters when he feels safe to do so. Offensively, the Canadian will focus on the body, looking to slow Garcia down and sap his gas tank over the course of 15 minutes. Surviving the first five minutes is (obviously) crucial, and there's reason to believe that Nelson will. He hasn't been knocked out in four years, and while his high guard does open up some weaknesses, it does an excellent job of protecting his head and preventing clean knockout shots from landing. Garcia will likely throw the kitchen sink at Nelson, but it's hard to see a finish coming in the first round.
If this fight does reach round two, things immediately begin to favor the underdog. Nelson has gone the distance in four of his last five, displaying above-average cardio and a chin that pairs well with his tactical approach. His aforementioned investment in the body will eventually take some of the edge off of Garcia's attacks. Counterstriking is a huge part of his game, so once he has a chance to get his timing and distance down, Nelson should be able to find Garcia's chin as the latter tries to launch long, powerful combinations. Garcia has a tendency to leave his chin in the air while he hunts for a big shot, a tendency that becomes a habit the more tired he becomes. Nelson has become a fairly accurate boxer at this point in his career, and while he doesn't have notable finishing power in his hands, Garcia's pure disregard for his own well-being is often so flagrant that it gets him into trouble against non-power punchers. That will almost certainly be the case in this fight if Garcia is extended beyond the first round-and-a-half.
It's always tempting to take the steamrolling finisher, but this is an overall poor matchup for Garcia. Nelson is a stylistic nightmare for heavy boxers, and his cardio, chin, and fight IQ will allow him to extend the fight and drag Garcia into unfamiliar waters.
Final Pick: Kyle Nelson by KO, round 3
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