Last week, Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev was rebooked as Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 after an unfortunate injury to Charles during his fight camp forced him to withdraw. Initially, fans around the world felt a sense of being robbed, however within a couple of hours, all was okay again in the MMA World. Featherweight king, Alex Volkanovski, stepped in on 12 days notice to save the card.
Islam vs Oliveira would have undoubtedly been an outstanding match-up and would all but guarantee a finish within the first few rounds, however, from a purists standpoint, Volk vs Islam is a much more intriguing match-up. We will start by looking at the original scheduled bout.
Islam vs Charles
This fight, whilst a fan favourite, is a lot more straight forward to analyse.
Islam, first time around, was able to keep Charles at distance, meaning when Charles did engage, it was off the back of a lunge, or throwing without a proper set up, meaning the counter was easier to read. He also done well by engaging in the grappling. Charles is probably the best submission grappler in the UFC, however, Islam has, as we all know, very good credentials in the grappling also, meaning that when Charles got rocked, he didn't get time to recover as he usually does, by dropping to guard. Islam was more than happy to follow him down, and as we saw, got the finish.
This is surprising because Charles, typically, is the better striker from distance. Neither guy is notorious for their outfighting ability, however Charles does have(sometimes) good entries into the pocket and good kicks from distance. Islam, whilst not as easy on the eye, is a lot better on the feet than people give him credit for. He reads things well, and counters well, albeit a little sloppy at times. Like Charlie Olives, his grappling is the real X-Factor, and it's one of the reasons, again, like Charles, he can be a bit more sloppy on the feet.
Realistically, the only route to victory in my opinion for Charles would be on the feet. Islam is too secure on the ground, unless he's severely rocked, I just don't see him giving Charles the space and time on the ground to lock something in. On the feet though, if he can be more patient(I know, we're talking about Charles Oliveira here), set up his entries and not over extend, he has the stopping power to finish the fight.
Islam has 2 routes to victory. He could engage on the feet, as he did last time, knowing Charles has holes in his defence and will let an opportunity for a counter arise at some point, or he can force the grappling exchanges and smother Charles.
Makhachev vs Volkanovski
This is where the geek in me gets excited. Islam vs Charles has a myriad of different outcomes. Both fighters could conceivably win a decision, both could get the TKO, and Islam could get the submission.
Let's take a look at where both fighters can win the fight, and where they could lose it. Starting from the outside striking range, Volk may be at a disadvantage here. Islam has a lot more reach and size, he has a much larger frame and is a lot more proficient on the feet than given credit for.
Long range striking
This is the range in which Islam had considerably more success than I think anyone expected. The teep kick is something Islam used well, but could utilise more in this one. If you're the taller opponent, and don't need to worry about the threat of a takedown, its a perfect weapon. It can do one of 2 things; force a reaction, or they'll just need to eat the kick. It can be used very effectively vs someone trying to close the range, and Islam throws it almost akin to a shovel uppercut. He almost scoops it up towards the mid-section, whereas most guys snap it up. This keeps Volk at range, and lets Islam control the distance against a feinting opponent.
Volk needs to improve on his entries from the first fight. He's an expert out-fighter, however, Islam being so much larger means he can't rely on that. Volk used that City Kickboxing out-fighting ability in the Holloway 2 fight. He lost the first two rounds, adjusted, and came back utilising the jab, countering and the front leg kick to slow Max down and get better reads. This will be the least significant range in the fight I imagine, as it's not really the type of fight Volkanovski can come in and coast, and it isn't really his style, so whilst there's a way to win this fight by keeping range and prodding from the outside, I can't see it happening.
Mid Range/In-fighting
This is where the fight will be won and lost on the feet. This range is where Volk absolutely incinerated Korean Zombie, and Max, in the third fight. All of Volk's striking is tailored towards dominating at the mid-range. His feints, set ups and entries are probably the best in the sport, possibly the sports history. Ironically, it's also where Volk let himself down in the first Islam fight. I think he underestimated Islam's striking, and thought entering with a pullback at the end of combinations would suffice, safe to say it didn't. He had success landing, but trying to exit the pocket was a real issue for the Featherweight king. The pullback was being countered by Islam with straight punches, and the duck out of the pocket was countered well by knees. This is where Volk can win this fight in my opinion. If he cleans up his exits, mixes up his entries and keeps Islam guessing, he can really run away with the striking.
Towards the end of the first fight, Volk had made adjustments and was luring Islam into throwing in order to enter the pocket and counter, if he can continue this strategy, he is the faster and more powerful striker, so it could pay dividends in a big way.
Islam, on the other hand, needs to keep up throwing as Volk exits. The best fighter in the world at this for a small amount of time was Leon 'Rocky' Edwards. He would enter the pocket, clinch, land a few shots, and land a big shot exiting the pocket. Usually an elbow whilst pivoting out of range. Islam needs to clinch up when Volk enters the pocket, whilst making sure if the clinch breaks, he throws. Volk ducks out of this range a lot, so throwing the knee as they exit the pocket could be the real decider here. This is the range Islam is also most dangerous in terms of takedowns. Shutting the mid-range to in-fighting, then using knees, trips and clinch throws will be key to nullifying Volk on the feet.
Volk will need to disengage with the clinch more than the first fight and try and keep this at midrange where he can utilise feints and throw combinations.
Grappling
There's a lot less to say in the grappling department for this match-up. Islam comes into this with the typical Dagestani style Sambo that can be so soul destroying and relentless. He is nothing short of an exceptional grappler, in every area. His top pressure is suffocating, his submissions are calculated and his transitions are as smooth as they get. He can submit anyone in the whole sport, and whoever fights Islam knows this is the first and main weapon to avoid. Easier said than done, however.
Volkonovski has been training with the legendary BJJ player, Craig Jones, for some time now. This will be a huge helping hand, as we seen in the first fight. Was Volk able to go scramble for scramble with Islam? Not really. He was however able to scramble to a position better suited to standing up or staying out of danger, and when he was put in a dangerous position, ie, the body triangle that Islam had in the first fight, his sub defence remained air tight. That will be down to Jones, and having another 9 months to work with the grappling wizard will help endless amounts.
In short, Volk basically needs to disengage in the grappling, and if forced into it, remain safe. Islam needs to force more grappling exchanges, whilst also damaging on the feet.
Summary
Personally, I think despite only having just over a week to get ready, I think Volkonovski will walk away with his second belt tonight. He's an expert in rematches, almost like a super-computer that just stores all the data for the next match-up. He is yet to show up to a fight not looking drastically improved from his last outing, therefore I think he has learned his lessons from the first fight and will punish Islam in the mid-range with feints and combinations, whilst remaining out of danger in the grappling exchanges.
It's a much more diverse match-up than the originally scheduled bout, but arguably worse for the division. Islam has asked multiple times to go and get a second belt, despite not fighting any contenders yet, whilst Volk winning a second belt would also cause a logjam. If Islam wins, does he fight contenders or go up? If Volk wins, does he juggle both belts? Whereas, if Charles won the fight, you'd be able to guarantee he would accept any contender, and probably have the fight over within a matter of minutes.
So, my conclusion, is that Islam v Charles would have been a spectacle for all to see, and probably better for the division as a whole, but Islam vs Volkanovski will be 2 of the top 4/5 fighters in the UFC going head-to-head in a mouth watering rematch. This is arguably the P4P #1 vs #2, probably the highest level skill matchup we could have currently in the organisation, possibly the whole sport.
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